Lavrov, Lula e Celso Amorim, em conversa no Palácio do PlanaltoComo o Brasil deveria navegar na “nova Guerra Fria”?
25.02.24 14:17
Uma análise publicada pelo think tank americano Council of Foreign Relations em março de 2022 dizia que já estava se tornando lugar-comum a ideia de que uma nova Guerra Fria havia começado, graças à parceria “agressiva” da China e da Rússia. No mundo atual, os Estados Unidos estariam em competição econômica com os chineses e em uma disputa militar com os russos. Por mais que essa seja uma visão bem americana, e que a ideia ainda não seja exatamente consenso entre pesquisadores, existe de fato uma crescente polarização do mundo em dois lados mais poderosos, sem espaço para muitas outras vozes.
Esse novo contexto torna menos provável a multipolaridade em que a política externa brasileira tradicionalmente aposta na busca por um lugar de destaque para o país na geopolítica global. Apesar de o governo Lula continuar acreditando que há espaço para a emergência de outras lideranças com apoio do Sul Global, talvez seja a hora de o país repensar como se posicionar nesse novo contexto, e isso envolve decisões importantes.
A melhor forma de o Brasil se posicionar em uma “nova Guerra Fria” depende de o país responder a uma pergunta mais ampla que precisa ser levantada antes: “O que o Brasil quer? Que lugar o país quer ocupar no mundo?“. Essas são questões que o país precisa responder em conjunto, como Estado, e não só como uma política de governo.
Se o Brasil quiser ter um lugar de destaque entre as nações mais poderosas, o caminho a ser tomado é um. Mas, se ele preferir seguir uma tradição de neutralidade e aceitar um papel menor nas grandes decisões globais, há outra trilha a ser seguida.
Historicamente, o Brasil tem a declarada ambição de ser um ator importante das relações globais, uma “grande potência“. A referência principal disso é a busca por um assento permanente no Conselho de Segurança da ONU, sobre o qual o governo Lula tem falado com certa frequência.
Sob essa perspectiva, a percepção externa indica que o melhor caminho é o Brasil focar no desenvolvimento de uma potência própria (especialmente na economia) e escolher se quer estar ao lado do Ocidente (representado especialmente pelos Estados Unidos, a União Europeia e o Reino Unido) ou se quer estar ao lado da China (e da Rússia). A partir desse alinhamento (sem necessariamente tornar o outro lado “inimigo“), o país teria espaço para seguir os passos das potências estabelecidas e buscar construir um lugar de destaque no mundo.
Esse é um dos principais resultados da análise de entrevistas com a comunidade de política externa das grandes potências, que apresento em meu novo livro Brazil’s International Status and Recognition as an Emerging Power (Palgrave Macmillan). Essa abordagem é chamada, em inglês, de “bandwagoning for status“, o que seria algo como “pegando uma carona para ampliar seu prestígio”. As potências estabelecidas indicam que, para o Brasil ter alguma relevância na política mundial, o país precisa escolher um lado. Dessa forma, demonstra que está pronto para ser um líder e tentar buscar um status mais alto.
O problema é que essa ambição histórica está em contraste direto com o comportamento tradicional da diplomacia brasileira, que é vista de fora como ficando “em cima do muro” em grandes disputas internacionais, evitando escolher um lado em momentos de polarização global. O Brasil usou isso ao seu favor antes da Segunda Guerra Mundial, navegou dessa forma durante boa parte da Guerra Fria e se mantém mais ou menos neutro até os dias de hoje. Essa postura é muito criticada pelas potências estabelecidas, que veem nisso um empecilho para a ampliação do prestígio brasileiro.
Esse comportamento equidistante, entretanto, se ajusta muito bem caso o Brasil escolha um caminho diferente no contexto dessa “nova Guerra Fria“. Se, em vez de tentar ser uma “grande potência”, o Brasil aceitar o papel de “potência média“, que muitos acham que se encaixam ao perfil do país, ele pode manter a neutralidade e se aproveitar disso para ter boas relações com os dois lados em disputa, avançando em parcerias que podem ajudar sua economia.
Atualmente, o país oficialmente é parceiro importante tanto dos EUA quanto da China, e se beneficia dessa situação. Em caso de um acirramento da polarização entre os dois países, a neutralidade e a equidistância poderiam ajudar mais o Brasil a focar em questões internas, no seu próprio desenvolvimento, sem buscar destaque internacional.
Paradoxalmente, isso poderia tornar o país mais importante no mundo, caso sua economia se tornasse grande o suficiente para ser incontornável para o resto do planeta.
A partir dessa perspectiva, seria possível indicar que a melhor maneira de o Brasil navegar nesse ambiente de “nova Guerra Fria” seria a manutenção de uma política de boa vizinhança com os dois lados da disputa, sem apoiar um ou o outro e continuando a valorizar os laços com todos. A questão é que, para isso, o Brasil vai precisar definir se está pronto para abrir mão dessa ideia de ser um protagonista global e aceitar ser uma potência média.
No momento atual, o maior problema é que o governo Lula parece estar respondendo à pergunta sobre “o que o Brasil quer?” sem que pareça haver uma Grande Estratégia consensual entre a comunidade de política externa nacional. A movimentação do presidente em relação à guerra entre Israel e o Hamas na Faixa de Gaza mostra que o Brasil parece estar apostando na velha ambição e na busca pelo protagonismo global — o que tem gerado grandes críticas externas pela forma como está acontecendo.
As declarações do presidente comparando o governo israelense aos nazistas podem ser lidas como um aceno ao Sul Global na tentativa de manter a busca do país por mais prestígio (no que o governo vê como a possibilidade de um mundo multipolar). Ele usa Israel como um “proxy” para se colocar contra a posição dos EUA na política global. Isso de certa forma faz sentido, pois não arrisca se levantar diretamente contra os EUA, e mesmo que não se alinhe ao país, não se torna seu inimigo.
Mas a movimentação parece uma aposta reforçada na tentativa de ser uma “grande potência”, alinhando o país mais à China e a este Sul Global. Assim, o Brasil parece decidir que não aceita ser “potência média” e querer ser uma das nações mais poderosas do planeta. Para isso, indica que está pronto para sair “de cima do muro”, aceitando os riscos políticos que isso pode trazer.
É uma aposta de quem acredita na possibilidade da multipolaridade, e tanto o chanceler Mauro Vieira quanto o presidente Lula já reforçaram essa visão do mundo. Uma possível ascensão dessa ordem global com uma difusão maior de poder pode beneficiar o país. Mas na consolidação de um mundo dividido em dois lados, isso pode ser lido como um afastamento do Ocidente ou mesmo um alinhamento à China e ao restante do Sul Global, “pegando carona” no lado oposto ao dos EUA, o que pode trazer riscos.
Só o tempo vai dizer se essa é uma aposta acertada.
Daniel Buarque é jornalista e pesquisador.
Assista à entrevista com Daniel Buarque sobre como o mundo vê o Brasil:
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Deveríamos entrar com a dignidade e importância de maior país exportador de alimentos e celeiro do mundo jamais com.o bostejamento estúpido de líderes ignorantes de cérebros a exalar lixo como vemos nos últimos vinte anos ... e o pior é que não há ninguém que possa mudar isto.
O BRASIL """oficial""" deve é calar a boca sobre tudo e qualquer coisa no exterior, enquanto tiver indigentes mentais grunhindo sandices em seu nome e em nome do seu povo. OS BRASILEIROS NORMAIS E DECENTES já manifestam-se majoritária e maciçamente através das redes sociais de modo correto, dando ciência ao mundo do seu idôneo, íntegro, honesto, sensato, decente, cônscio e equilibrado posicionamento em relação aos acontecimentos de impacto planetário.
"Porque não te calas, BRASIL", até que possas ser representado com dignidade, integridade, inteligência e competência!!!!
PROTAGONIZAR é para quem sabe e pode fazê-lo, não é para quem apenas """quer""", menos ainda quando tal vontade parte de ""zés mequetrefes"" quaisquer como essa série subespécie que já há 2 décadas aboleta perniciosamente funções relevantes da NOSSA REPÚBLICA, nos prejudicando internamente e na interação com os DEMAIS POVOS.
PROTAGONIZAR é muiiiito diferente de ""querer aparecer"" estúpida, imperativa e inconsequentemente a qualquer preço, incluído o da vergonha, o da humilhação, o da ridicularização, o dos prejuízos morais e os da vida prática.
ISSO JÁ É O SUFICIENTE E NÃO NOS ENVERGONHA E HUMILHA PERANTE O MUNDO.